Donald Trump has long claimed that the U.S. economy has recovered and is outperforming the rest of the world due to his presidency and policy positions. However, what this Republican president fails to understand is that the financial markets are due for a dramatic crisis.
“2018 is seeing multiple tailwinds of the last nine years abate,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a report to clients, via coverage from MarketWatch. According to the report, entitled “The End of Easy,” the current investing environment in global financial markets will have one final rally during the summer months.
“Decelerating growth, rising inflation and tightening policy leave us with below-consensus 12-month return forecasts for most risk assets. After nine years of markets outperforming the real economy, we think the opposite now applies as policy tightens,” the Morgan Stanley analysts added.
Amid the report, the investment bank has advised their clients to switch vulnerable equities for cash in order to maintain a surplus during any potential economic downturns. One “bearish” market analyst, Mike Wilson, told CNBC online that the doomsaying outlined in his investment bank’s report doesn’t suggest an immediate collapse that could lead to a recession period.
“We are not looking for an economic recession in the next 12 months but we could experience the fear of one if financial conditions deteriorate further and investors begin to worry about an earnings deceleration turning into an outright decline,” Wilson said. “We think it’s pretty obvious that the market had discounted the news on tax cuts, global growth and still supportive financial conditions. … In many ways a correction or consolidation was overdue and makes perfect sense. The question is whether or not this turns into something more sinister.”
As a result, the bank advised their clients to avoid as much equity exposure as possible. Wilson, on behalf of Morgan Stanley, recommended that the bank’s clients should shift their portfolios to cover Treasury notes, industrials, and energy shares across a variety economic sectors and sub-segments.
Morgan Stanley’s observations are directly linked to the current climate of central banking policy at the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve has shifted away from what one analyst terms as an “accommodative” monetary policy which includes a liquidation of the central bank’s balance sheet and an increase in interest rates.
One other component to consider is the impact that Trump’s presidency has had on the market. At first, the markets reacted fairly well to Trump’s regulatory reforms and promotion of “pro-business” governance. This was all thrown away, however, when the administration adopted protectionist trade policies which directly spurred a trade war with the People’s Republic of China.
International business shares have been up and down on a sporadic basis due to a variety of other areas of contention, as well. Given current foreign relationships between the U.S., NATO allies, and the geopolitical quagmire that is the Middle East, a recession could be linked to rising oil prices, for example. The initiation of a bear market and consequent economic downturn could be catastrophic if additional negative factors ascend current issues.